Browsing All posts tagged under »Economic growth«

The Economic Issues Raised by Possible Scottish Independence

July 18, 2011

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On 5th May 2011, the first time since devolution in July 1999, the Scottish National Party won a majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament at Holyrood.  One of the key manifesto promises of the party is to hold a referendum on Scottish independence before 2016.  While political commentators have begun discussing the potential political […]

The Bizarre Nature of The Chinese Real Estate Construction Boom

April 11, 2011

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China, as we all know, is a booming economy, having experienced GDP growth of above 6% per annum for each of the last 20 years.  The conventional wisdom is that this growth has been driven by the low-value manufacturing exports (mainly of consumer goods) that have been sold to the West.  However, the data tells […]

In Support the Bank of England on Monetary Policy

March 28, 2011

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While reading the Office for Budget Responsibility‘s United Kingdom Economic and Fiscal Outlook – March 2011 over the weekend (yes, I had that much fun), I noticed the chart below: It shows the difference between the current rate of UK inflation (CPI) and an estimate of inflation had sales taxes (VAT and excise duty on […]

A Hors d’œuvre Ahead of Today’s Non-Farm Payroll Numbers

February 4, 2011

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Just prior to the release of the US non-farm payroll numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics later today, I thought it would be useful to take a look at this data series from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc, a major outplacement company in the United States. As we can see, during the last four […]

Fisking Polly Toynbee on the Irish “Bail-out”

November 24, 2010

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Today The Guardian newspaper, published a Polly Toynbee column entitled “Ireland shouldn’t get a penny until it gives up its tax piracy“.  The article is riddled to such an extent with conjecture, half-truths and fantasy economics that I thought it deserved a full-on Fisking, so here goes: The bailout of Ireland and its banks is so odd that […]

Why A Slower Pace of Government Deficit Reduction Isn’t a Big Problem

October 18, 2010

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With the unequivocal manner in which some UK Coalition Government have been speaking recently, people might be forgiven for thinking that the pace of government deficit reduction set out by George Osborne in the 10th June 2010 emergency budget had instead been handed-down to him by God at Mt Sinai.  However, as noted at a […]

The Emerging Split on the Bank of England’s MPC

September 29, 2010

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The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) has maintained interest rates at current 0.5% level since March 2009 and its Asset Purchase Programme (a.k.a. quantitative easing) at £200bn since November 2009, the consensus amongst the committee members is now beginning to break down, creating uncertainty regarding the future direction of monetary policy.  One member […]

The Partial Success and Unintended Consequences of Quantitative Easing

September 21, 2010

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When the Bank of England formally launched its quantitative easing program in March 2009, the minutes from the meeting stated that this policy mechanism would work by: stimulating the demand for corporate credit instruments [and] improve the supply of funds to the corporate sector. The purchases would also mean that the banking system would be […]

Nine Zero-Cost Policies the UK Government can Implement to Encourage Economic Growth

September 16, 2010

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Economists know that long-term economic growth is driven by fixed capital accumulation (ie. of manufacturing plant & equipment and communications & utility infrastructure) and increases in factor productivity (ie technological innovation which is a consequence of research and education). Economists also know that lower tax rates lead to higher levels of GDP growth. However, with […]

Why Equity Market Performance is Independent of Economic Growth

September 7, 2010

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During my regular intake of business and finance news stories, I have recently come across many pieces that talk about the increased likelihood of a double-dip recession (which may well be correct) and thereafter use this evidence as a reason to be bearish on stocks (with which I disagree). Just last week, the editor of […]