Browsing All Posts filed under »Economy«

The Economic Issues Raised by Possible Scottish Independence

July 18, 2011

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On 5th May 2011, the first time since devolution in July 1999, the Scottish National Party won a majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament at Holyrood.  One of the key manifesto promises of the party is to hold a referendum on Scottish independence before 2016.  While political commentators have begun discussing the potential political […]

The Bizarre Nature of The Chinese Real Estate Construction Boom

April 11, 2011

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China, as we all know, is a booming economy, having experienced GDP growth of above 6% per annum for each of the last 20 years.  The conventional wisdom is that this growth has been driven by the low-value manufacturing exports (mainly of consumer goods) that have been sold to the West.  However, the data tells […]

In Support the Bank of England on Monetary Policy

March 28, 2011

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While reading the Office for Budget Responsibility‘s United Kingdom Economic and Fiscal Outlook – March 2011 over the weekend (yes, I had that much fun), I noticed the chart below: It shows the difference between the current rate of UK inflation (CPI) and an estimate of inflation had sales taxes (VAT and excise duty on […]

When Will the Bank of England Raise Interest Rates?

February 16, 2011

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Where do you think the BoE will go with interest rates in Q2 2011? Is there really enough spending in the system to warrant raising them? This question was asked by anonymous reader via Formspring. The table above is taken from the Bank of England’s latest Inflation report and shows the latest market expectations for […]

A Hors d’œuvre Ahead of Today’s Non-Farm Payroll Numbers

February 4, 2011

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Just prior to the release of the US non-farm payroll numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics later today, I thought it would be useful to take a look at this data series from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc, a major outplacement company in the United States. As we can see, during the last four […]

The Systematic Debasement of Sterling by the UK Government

December 15, 2010

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Conventional wisdom suggests that the spectre of inflation has been defeated by the economic policy innovations of independent central banks and inflation targeting mechanisms. Indeed, despite prices of many types of goods and services currently rising – and expected to continue rising – as discussed in a recent post, many still believe that deflation is […]

The Impending Inflationary Threat

December 6, 2010

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In its latest inflation report, the Bank of England stated confidently that: Inflation is likely to stay above the 2% target throughout 2011, given the forthcoming rise in VAT and continuing increases in import prices. As the impact of those factors on inflation diminishes, inflation is likely to fall back, reflecting continuing downward pressure from […]

How to Solve the Eurozone Government Debt Crisis

November 30, 2010

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The bulk of the financial troubles in the Eurozone – at least those which have become apparent thus far – have occurred in the so-called “peripheral” states, ie. small countries that are in huge financial difficulties when viewed individually (ie. Greece, Ireland, Portugal), but are small enough to be rescued by their larger brethren in […]

Fisking Polly Toynbee on the Irish “Bail-out”

November 24, 2010

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Today The Guardian newspaper, published a Polly Toynbee column entitled “Ireland shouldn’t get a penny until it gives up its tax piracy“.  The article is riddled to such an extent with conjecture, half-truths and fantasy economics that I thought it deserved a full-on Fisking, so here goes: The bailout of Ireland and its banks is so odd that […]

Why Only Full-blown Political Union Can Save the Euro

November 18, 2010

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The recent financial problems plaguing peripheral members of the Eurozone such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal, are seen by some as the unfortunate consequences of the banking crisis and consequent recession, by some as just desserts for profligate government tax-and-spend policies over the previous decade, and by others as unfair punishment being meted-out by the […]